All Cause Mortality in the United States During 2021

The CEO of the OneAmerica insurance company recently disclosed that mortality in the 18-64 age group was 40 percent higher during the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2021 than during pre-pandemic levels. For reference, the CEO indicated that a 10 percent increase would have been a 1-in-200-year event. Furthermore, most of the deaths were not attributed to Covid.

Figure 1: US weekly deaths by age group. Data is from the CDC. The gold curve is data for 2021. The red curve is data for 2020. The gray curves are data for 2015-2019.

The OneAmerica insurance company serves a subset of the US population. The CDC collects mortality data for the entire US population. Figure 1 illustrates the weekly US mortality from 2015-2021 by age group. Several generalizations are readily apparent. The years 2015-2019 were very similar for all age groups forming a tight band of usual expectation. The tightness of the band for 2015-2019 means that relatively small increases in mortality are very significant events. There has been nothing unusual about mortality for the Under-25 age group during the Covid period compared to recent history. The last 10 weeks of data for 2021 are incomplete due to delays in reporting death certificates. Otherwise, mortality for the Over-25 age groups have been higher than historic norms starting in about March of 2020 and continuing to the present time with one big exception for the 85+ age group.

There is a very interesting interval from Week 10 (March 7) 2021 to Week 24 (June 13) 2021. Deaths in the 85+ Age Group are LOWER than average during this interval. Total deaths for Weeks 10-24 averaged 248,536 during 2015-2019, but were 242,372 during 2021. For the 25-44 age group, total deaths for Weeks 10-24 averaged 38,955 during 2015-2019, but were 54,789 (40.6 percent higher) during 2021. Daily Covid deaths (7-day moving average) in the US were declining from 1,689 on March 7, 2021, to 387 on June 13, 2021. This time period was the decline phase of the winter outbreak that peaked around January 18, 2021, and reached a nadir around July 8, 2021 prior to the Delta surge. One cannot plausibly attribute the above average deaths for the 25-44 age group during this time period to Covid. What was responsible for these deaths?

Figure 2: Weekly US mortality by Cause Group. Data is from the CDC. The gold curve is data for 2021. The red curve is data for 2020. The gray curves are data for 2015-2019.

Clearly there is a very significant above average number of deaths across the US that cannot be attributed to Covid. As was the case for the Age Group graphs, data for the last 10 weeks are incomplete due to delays in reporting of death certificates. Deaths attributed to Malignant Neoplasms were average during the entire pandemic period. Although there was an increase in deaths from Alzheimer Disease and dementia in 2020 after the onset of the pandemic, this was less apparent during 2021. There was an increase in deaths attributed to Other select causes (which include suicides and drug overdoses), but the magnitude was much smaller than what is seen in the Circulatory diseases category. Deaths attributed to Circulatory diseases include strokes, heart attacks, and heart failure (including myocarditis). The Circulatory diseases category is clearly the most important category for excess deaths during 2020 and 2021. Notably, deaths attributed to Respiratory diseases were below average during 2021 for the period of interest between Week 10 and Week 24 of 2021. Covid is a respiratory disease and leads to acute respiratory distress syndrome with hypoxemia and respiratory failure in severe cases. During the period of interest between Week 10 and Week 24 of 2021, Covid deaths were steadily declining, deaths attributed to Respiratory diseases were below average, but deaths due to Circulatory diseases were significantly above average. It is difficult to explain the data between Week 10 and Week 24 of 2021 on the basis of lung injury caused by Covid infection.

The spike protein enables entry of the virus into the host cells. The spike protein targets the angiotensin converting enzyme-2 (ACE-2) receptor. Angiotensin converting enzymes play an important role in the regulation of blood pressure. Angiotensin receptor blockers (ARB) and angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors are both important classes of drugs used to treat hypertension. It does not require a stretch of the imagination to suspect that the spike protein could cause elevation of blood pressure. Acute elevation in blood pressure is known to be a risk factor for stroke, acute myocardial infarction (heart attack), and congestive heart failure. Spike protein is also associated with clotting, presumably due to endothelial injury, which would also increase risk for myocardial infarction and stroke. It is not clear why spike protein from the Covid virus would explain above average deaths attributed to Circulatory diseases during a time period when Covid cases and deaths were declining. However, the Covid virus was not the only source of spike protein during this time period. The mRNA vaccines led to the production of spike protein by host cells and Weeks 10-24 of 2021 were immediately followed by the mass introduction of mRNA vaccines to the US public. The data is not proof, but it is certainly a red flag.

The appropriate method to assess vaccine efficacy and safety is all cause mortality. Deaths from all causes are compared between the vaccine group and a control unvaccinated group. This method has not been used. Rather, the CDC and FDA determine on a case-by-case basis whether reported adverse events can be attributed to the vaccine. If a footballer drops dead during a game, one would not be inclined to attribute the cause to a vaccine given 10 weeks earlier. However, when 5 footballers drop dead every week, one will be looking for ANY common denominator between the dead footballers. Neither the CDC nor the FDA are impartial observers of vaccine safety. Both agencies have vested interests in promoting the vaccines. When the CDC or FDA analyze events on a case-by-case basis, they are inclined to say that an event was not due to a vaccine (especially if the people at the CDC and FDA include former executives from Pfizer). However, when the entire US population has a significant number of events compared to historic basis, one must look for the common denominators in the people with the events. The existing data is not proof that the vaccines are causing deaths due to Circulatory diseases. The burden of proof, however, lies with the CDC and FDA to prove that the vaccines are not causing deaths due to spike protein. It is scientific irresponsibility to eliminate the control group via vaccine mandates and make future assessment of vaccine safety scientifically impossible. 

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