Payroll Growth Continues, but the Pace Is Slowing

Total nonfarm payrolls posted a 261,000 gain in October versus a 315,000 rise in September (revised up by 52,000), while August had an increase of 292,000 (revised down by 23,000). Over the last three months, the average gain is 289,300 versus a 12-month average of 441,900.

Excluding the government sector, private payrolls posted a gain of 233,000 in October following the addition of a net 319,000 jobs in September. The average monthly gain over the 22 months since January 2021 was 461,000. However, the monthly increases appear to be slowing. Over the 14 months from January 2021 through February 2022, the average monthly rise was 535,000; for the five months from March 2022 through July 2022, the average was 376,000; and over the last three months, the average has dropped to 262,000 (see first chart).

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